As President-elect Donald Trump gears up for his second return to the White House, questions arise about the fate of the marijuana reforms President Joe Biden introduced. The Biden administration eased cannabis restrictions, raising hopes for broader legalization. So, what lies ahead for US marijuana?
A New Era for Cannabis or More of the Same?
During Trump’s first term, then Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions took a hard-line stance on marijuana. In 2018, Sessions rescinded Obama-era guidance deprioritizing federal enforcement of cannabis laws in states where it was legalized.
Under Biden, the administration moved to reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance. The latter acknowledges the medical benefits of cannabis.
“We didn’t see a lot of activity from President Trump, if any at all, on cannabis reform,” says David Culver, the senior vice president of public affairs of the US Cannabis Council lobbying group, “But I think this time is going to be different.”
Trump’s Public Stance on Marijuana
Two months before the recent election, Trump expressed support for decriminalizing marijuana use. In a post on Truth Social, he affirmed his belief in ending arrests for small quantities of marijuana, emphasizing “smart regulations” and safe access to tested cannabis products.
“As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common-sense laws, including safe banking for state-authorized companies,” Trump said. This public stance differs from his first term’s more conservative drug policy.
The Role of Project 2025
Despite his recent statements, Trump’s platform includes the ambitious Project 2025. This political initiative published by the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank emphasizes a crackdown on drug trafficking and illegal opioids as the primary drug-related focus of a Republican administration.
While Project 2025 doesn’t explicitly address cannabis, the plan highlights a return to strict drug enforcement. There may be more focus on preventing youth drug use, offering long-term addiction treatment, and reducing illicit drugs. This might result in less federal attention to cannabis reform despite Trump’s public support.
Culver, however, predicts that a second Trump administration could take a softer approach. He speculates that Trump would appoint neutral or pro-cannabis reform officials.
For example, cannabis advocate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., being considered for the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, could influence a more progressive stance within a conservative framework.
A Nationwide Trend Away From Marijuana Legalization?
The momentum for cannabis legalization appears to be slowing, as seen in recent ballot defeats in states like South Dakota, North Dakota, and Florida. Florida’s Amendment 3, which proposes legalizing cannabis, was supported by over $150 million in campaign funding, mainly from medical cannabis giant Trulieve. However, Governor Ron DeSantis opposed the measure, arguing it would grant Trulieve an unfair monopoly.
These setbacks suggest cannabis legalization is far from a foregone conclusion in the US. With the influx of federal policy, the future of state-by-state legalization remains to be determined.
Nevertheless, the financial success of the legal cannabis market is undeniable. In 2023, US states garnered a record $4 billion in cannabis tax revenue.
Will Marijuana Reform Stay on Track?
Trump will likely face mounting pressure to address cannabis policy. Culver suggests Trump could support a regulatory model akin to alcohol, allowing states the freedom to enact their laws. This approach could balance federal oversight with state autonomy, appealing to a diverse coalition of cannabis advocates and conservative voters.
Cannabis advocates and industry stakeholders are preparing for an unpredictable yet potentially progressive period in cannabis policy. If Trump embraces a balanced, state-oriented approach, the US may continue its gradual march toward marijuana legalization.
Only time will reveal how Trump’s administration will shape the future of cannabis in America.
